The Marathon Blog by Phil Singer

Earlier today, I wrote that the only way Palin can win tonight is by demonstrating a full command of the issues.  But the more I think about it, the more I wonder if she has another arrow to pull from her quiver.

Since the odds of her achieving issue dominance are slim (unlike George W. Bush in 2000 or any of the other three candidates today, she hasn’t spent months honing her lines on various policy issues during the primaries), what else might she do to pull off an upset?

She needs to create a moment. She’s got to get back to the basics and remind people about what they liked about her when they first met her at the Republican convention: Her authenticity.

She could say something like “I’m not a policy wonk and I may not know the details of Supreme Court case law, but I know what people are going through right now because I am one of you.”  It would be particularly powerful if she interrupted a question and turned to the camera to make her comments.

It’s fraught with risk and might not even work: First, she has to be able to pull it off which is not a given.  Second, the stock market is tanking, the economy is burning, the world is filled with armed conflict – people want competence and command in a post-Katrina world and may not want their neighbor in the White House.

But the odds of her getting stumped on something are too great to risk letting that be the moment that gets re-played on the morning shows.  If she can’t be certain of demonstrating a command of the issues, she needs to do something else to ensure that the takeaway from the debate is to her advantage.  Creating a personal moment could be the difference between Palin being embarrassed and doing no harm.